Archive for May 9th, 2008
Technical Analysis IV: Identify the Market Trend
Three Phases of Major Trends
A trend represents a general direction of the market. Dow Theory asserts that major trends have three distinct phases: accumulation, public participation and distribution. The accumulation phase represents the first part of the trend in which those who are well-informed buy or sell. In other words, if the well-informed recognize that the recent downtrend is soon coming to an end, they would buy, and vice versa.
The public participation phase involves the masses following the major trend. This occurs as prices begin to accelerate rapidly and there is news supporting the trend.
Technical Analysis III: Support and Resistance
What are support and resistance?
Support levels are prices where buyers have shown or are likely to show strength. Resistance levels are prices where sellers are likely to be strong.
Support
Support levels essentially give the market a ‘floor’, since they are areas where buyers tend to be strong. If the price falls to a strong support level, traders should expect buyers to step in and drive the price up, or at least keep it from moving any lower.
Technical Analysis II: What are Charts?
A chart is the most important tool for understanding the total sum of what is going on in the market. Almost all traders today, particularly those who trade actively, use their favourite types of charts to analyse the market. In the end, a chart is a visualised representation of the price movements, a reflection of the psychology of the market and a visualization of the interaction between buyers and sellers in the market. Because it is a reflection of all the activity that has taken place for a particular traded instrument, a chart also shows how the market values a particular asset based on all the information available. And because a chart has the potential to offer such insight and to accurately reflect the entire perspective of the market, it is an indispensable tool in the arsenal of any trader.
There are three major kinds of charts: bar charts, candlestick charts, and line charts. These charts are described below. Within the articles, we will use primarily candlestick charts, because they are the most commonly used charts amongst active traders.
Technical Analysis I: Introduction
There are two major approaches to analyzing the currency market, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The fundamental analysis focuses on the underlying causes of price movements, such as the economic, social, and political forces that drive supply and demand. The technical analysis focuses on the studies of the price movements themselves. Technical analysts use historical data to forecast the direction of future prices.
The premise of technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price movement. By studying historical price movements, investors can make informed trading decisions. The following articles aim to give a thorough presentation of technical analysis tools and theories.
